![]() Roblox is falling after hours due to weaker than expected bookings and daily active users. The last time they were that low was back in was March 2021, it looks like. Margin levels in January fell to $829 billion from $910 billion. We care about tighter financial conditions because it will ultimately reduce leverage in the market, and that is precisely what has started to happen. Tomorrow the Chicago Fed national financial condition index will come out. It appears that financial conditions continue to tighten, with the IEF/LQD ratio yet again rising today. Real yields did tick higher on the 5-yr TIP, rising to -0.88 bps, but I think it will need a push at this point to get to higher highs, which I believe will be required to push stocks down. Of course, it is possible that it doesn’t disappear, but with a slate of economic data in the morning and the Fed minutes at 2 PM, the news flow certainly supports such a lower move. So I fully expect today’s rally to vanish by tomorrow or Thursday. ![]() These gap higher days, followed by sideways action, tend to resolve themselves by closing the gap within a day or so. The S&P 500 opened higher right from the start, after the futures rallied during the middle of the night on no volume, following some hopes of Russian de-escalation. It seemed more like an unwind of volatility than a big rally. Stocks managed to finish the day higher somehow. MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN RBLX ![]()
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